Přehled zpráv a analytiky

Oil fluctuated near a nine-month high as reports showed manufacturing activity slowed in Europe and China and United Nations inspectors in Iran were denied access to a military base.

Futures fell as much as 0.6 percent after an index based on a survey of euro-region purchasing managers unexpectedly shrank. Manufacturing in China may decline for a fourth month, according to a preliminary index. Oil advanced earlier after officials from the International Atomic Energy Agency were denied access to the Iranian base in Parchin.

A euro-area composite index based on a survey of purchasing managers in the services and manufacturing industries dropped to 49.7 from 50.4 in January, London-based Markit Economics said in an initial estimate today.

China’s manufacturing also may shrink in February, according to the preliminary 49.7 reading of an index from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics. It would be the fourth month factory activity declines as Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis damps exports and the housing market cools. Readings below 50 point to a contraction.

The International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran refused permission to visit the Parchin military base during two days of talks that ended yesterday. An Iranian military commander said his nation would consider preemptive action if threatened.

Crude oil for April delivery traded in range $105.61 - $106.47 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent oil for April settlement climbed $1.22, or 1 percent, to $122.88 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, the highest intraday level since May 4.

Gold retreated from a two-week high as concerns over the financial condition of Europe was hit on the euro and the dollar strengthened.

Euro zone finance ministers agreed Tuesday to unlock the second program of financialsupport for Greece € 130 billion in size in order to prevent the country defaulted in March. In return, Athens would have to take unpopular austerity measures, and private lenders will suffer heavy losses.

In the future, gold will be supported by low interest rates in the U.S., purchases by central banks and strong demand in emerging markets, including China. Goldman Sachs on Wednesday confirmed the favorable prognosis in gold prices in 12 months.

The cost of the February gold futures on the COMEX today declined to 1750.0 dollars per ounce.

Resistance 3:1373 (high of 2011)

Resistance 2:1368 (Feb 20-21 highs)

Resistance 1:1364 (session high)

Current price: 1359,25

Support 1:1355 (session low and Feb 21 low)

Support 2:1351 (МА (200) for Н1, 50.0 % FIBO 1334-1368)

Support 3:1347 (61.8 % FIBO 1334-1368)

EUR/USD $1.3200, $1.3225, $1.3250, $1.3300

AUD/USD $1.0600, $1.0650, $1.0700

USD/JPY Y79.50, Y80.15

EUR/CHF Chf1.2075

USD/CAD C$0.9950

U.S. stock futures declined as Dell  tumbled and reports from Europe and China fueled concern about the global economy.

Dell, the third-largest maker of personal computers, sank  after its sales forecast missed analysts’ estimates.

Global stocks fell as a gauge of European services and manufacturing output unexpectedly shrank in February. China’s manufacturing may shrink for a fourth month, according to data from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit. In the U.S., sales of previously owned homes probably rose last month to the highest level since May 2010, analysts said before a National Association of Realtors report today.

Global stocks:

Nikkei  9,554 +90.98 +0.96%

Hang Seng 21,549.28 +70.56 +0.33%

Shanghai Composite 2,403.59 +22.16 +0.93%

FTSE  5,913.2 -15.00 -0.25%

CAC  3,453.38 -11.86 -0.34%

DAX 6,868.08 -40.10 -0.58%

Crude Oil $105.96 (-0,3%).

Gold $1754.00 (-0,2%).

Data:

08:00 France Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) February 48.5 48.7 50.2

08:00 France Services PMI (preliminary) February 52.3 51.9 50.3

08:30 Germany Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) February 51.0 51.1 50.1

08:30 Germany Services PMI (preliminary) February 53.7 53.6 52.6

09:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) February 48.8 49.3 49.0

09:00 Eurozone Services PMI (preliminary) February 50.4 50.7 49.4

09:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes

10:00 Eurozone Industrial New Orders s.a., m/m December -1.3% +0.6% +1.9%

10:00 Eurozone Industrial New Orders, y/y December -2.7% -2.8% -1.7%

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3350, $1.3325, $1.3310, $1.3300, $1.3270/80

Bids $1.3210/00, $1.3185, $1.3150, $1.3140/30

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0800/05, $1.0790/95, $1.0750/60, $1.0720/25, $1.0700

Bids $1.0590/80,  $1.0570/65, $1.0530/25

• considers Greek proposal will constitute rating default
• post exchange, Greek ratings can move out of RD category

Resistance 3: Y82.20 (high of May)

Resistance 2: Y81.50 (high of July)

Resistance 1: Y80.30/40 (session high, Feb 20 high, high of August)

Сurrent price: Y80.22

Support 1:Y79.90 (Feb 20-21 lows)

Support 2:Y79.30 (Feb 20 low)

Support 3:Y78.80 (Feb 17 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9300 (Feb 16 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9210 (Feb 17 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9165 (МА (200) for Н1)

Current price: Chf0.9123

Support 1: Chf0.9080 (Feb 9, 20-21 lows)

Support 2: Chf0.9060 (low of December)

Support 3: Chf0.9000 (psychological level)

Resistance 3 : $1.5860 (Feb 20 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.5810 (session high)

Resistance 1 : $1.5740 (area of Feb 6 and 10 lows and Feb 15 high)

Current price: $1.5700

Support 1 : $1.5690 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.5650 (Feb 14 and 16 lows)

Support 3 : $1.5580 (50,0 % FIBO $1,5230-$ 1,5930)

Resistance 3 : $1.3460 (Dec  8 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.3320 (Feb 9 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.3290 (Feb 21 high)

Current price: $1.3224

Support 1 : $1.3180 (Feb 20-21 lows, МА (200) for Н1)

Support 2 : $1.3110 (Feb 17 low)

Support 3 : $1.2970 (Feb  16 low)

Asian stocks swung between gains and losses as concern that oil near a nine-month high will crimp economic growth was countered by a surge in Alibaba.com Ltd. and gains by telecommunications companies.

Nikkei 225 9,554 +90.98 +0.96%

Hang Seng 21,549.28 +70.56 +0.33%

S&P/ASX 200 4,293.11 +1.91 +0.04%

Shanghai Composite 2,403.59 +22.16 +0.93%

Alibaba, China’s No. 1 e-commerce web portal, jumped 42 percent after its parent offered to privatize the company.

NTT DoCoMo Inc. , Japan’s largest mobile-phone operator by market value, climbed 2 percent after a report it expanded capacity to prevent service glitches.

Kumho Petro Chemical Co. , a Korean maker of synthetic rubber and chemicals, slid 4.3 percent as crude oil remained above $105 a barrel. Wilmar International Ltd. , the world’s No. 1 palm-oil processing company, dropped 11 percent after its earnings fell short of analyst forecasts.

• MPC Voted 7-2 For Stg50bn QE Increase At Feb Meet

  MPC Miles, Posen Preferred Stg75bn Boost To QE

  MPC Voted 9-0 For Unchanged Banke Rate At Feb Meeting

  MPC - 'Case Could Be Made' For No Further Policy Stimulus

  MPC: Stg75bn QE Boost Risked Worrying The Markets

00:30 Australia Wage Price Index, q/q IV quarter +0.7% +0.8% +1.0%

00:30 Australia Wage Price Index, y/y IV quarter +3.6% +3.4% +3.6%

02:30 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) February 48.8 49.7

The dollar rose to a six-month high of 80.01 yen on speculation signs the U.S. economy is accelerating will reduce the case for more quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve. The U.S. currency gained for a fifth day versus the yen before data economists forecast will show the housing market is stabilizing.

Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. probably rose for a fourth month in January, climbing 1.1 percent to a 4.66 million annual rate, the highest level since May 2010, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the National Association of Realtors releases its data today.

The euro was 0.2 percent from a three-month high versus Japan’s currency as the Greek government won a second bailout and sent debt-swap and austerity measures to parliament for approval. Euro-area finance ministers awarded 130 billion euros ($172 billion) in aid to Greece and reached an accord for greater debt relief from investor representatives in an exchange offer to tide the nation past a bond redemption next month.

Greece’s government agreed to fiscal measures, a voluntary debt swap known as private-sector involvement, and collective action clauses for bonds. Legislation needed to carry out those measures was submitted to lawmakers and posted on the Greek Parliament’s website.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars fell versus most major peers after a report signaled China’s manufacturing may shrink for a fourth month, spurring concern exports to the world’s fastest-growing major economy will drop. A preliminary reading of a purchasing managers’ index by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics showed the gauge was at 49.7 this month, after a final figure of 48.8 in January. A reading below 50 points to a contraction. January and February economic data are distorted by a weeklong Chinese holiday.

China is Australia’s biggest trading partner and New Zealand’s second-largest export destination.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair the pair was in consolidation.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair the pair was in consolidation.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair gain, showed new month’s high.

On Wednesday At 0930GMT, the UK sees the release of the Feb BOE MPC Minutes. The minutes will again show divisions on the MPC, and while most analysts think the vote will have been unanimous in approving Stg50 billion in further quantitative easing there is a clear risk one or more members will have voted in favour of no change. France and Germany have moved to "harmonise" corporate tax rates by 2013, the Telegraph says. The paper says that will increase pressure on Ireland and the UK, as the EU will move to overall "harmonisation" of rates.

Yesterday the euro rose against most of its major counterparts after Greece won a second international bailout and the Greek finance minister said a formal offer for a debt swap will be made by the end of this week. Euro-area finance ministers awarded 130 billion euros ($173 billion) in aid to Greece and reached an accord for greater debt relief from investor representatives in an exchange offer to tide the nation past a bond redemption next month. The euro strengthened after news Greece’s government will introduce legislation to Parliament today that will allow it to enforce losses on bondholders in a writedown of Greek debt, part of a second financing package for the country known as private- sector involvement, or PSI, a government official said.

The yen fell for a fourth day versus the dollar, the longest losing streak in more than two months, as investors sold the Japanese currency to buy higher-yielding assets.

Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index retreating from a six-month high, as oil prices at a nine-month high threatened to curb spending and accelerate inflation, tempering optimism after Euro-area finance ministers agreed a bailout package for Greece.

Nikkei 225 9,463.02 -22.07 -0.23%

Hang Seng 21,478.72 +53.93 +0.25%

S&P/ASX 200 4,291.2 +35.10 +0.82%

Shanghai Composite 2,381.43 +17.83 +0.75%

Panasonic Corp., a Japanese electronics company, dropped 1.9 percent to 710 yen in Tokyo after saying it plans to re- enter the European mobile-device market with a smartphone in April.

Mazda Motor Corp., Japan’s least profitable major automaker, slumped 9.9 percent to 145 yen on a report it plans to raise capital.

DeNA Co., a social-networking service provider, rallied 8.2 percent to 2,576 yen. DeNA and South Korea’s web-portal operator Daum Communications Corp. said they have started providing “Daum Mobage,” a South Korean version of DeNA’s social gaming platform, targeting 10 million users within a year.

OneSteel Ltd. surged the most in almost three years in Sydney as Australia’s second-biggest steelmaker said it’s switching focus to iron ore away from its loss-making steel unit. The shares rose 12 percent to 82 Australian cents, the biggest jump since April 2009.

Resistance 3: Y81.50 (Jul 2011 high)

Resistance 2: Y80.55 (50.0% FIBO Y75.55-Y85.50)

Resistance 1: Y80.25 (Aug 4 high)

The current price: Y80.07

Support 1: Y79.90 (support line from Feb 14)

Support 2: Y79.35 (Feb 20 low)

Support 3: Y78.65/75 (area of Feb 16-17 lows)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9205 (Feb 17 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9180 (Feb 20 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9150 (Feb 21 high)

The current price: Chf0.9129

Support 1: Chf0.9085 (Feb 21 low)

Support 2: Chf0.9065 (Nov 30 low)

Support 3: Chf0.9020 (Nov 10 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.5925 (Feb 8 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.5880 (Feb 20 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.5825 (high of the American session on Feb 21)

The current price: $1.5780

Support 1 : $1.5760 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.5730 (Feb 10 low)

Support 3 : $1.5685 (low of the Asian session on Feb 14)

Resistance 3 : $1.3320 (Feb 9 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.3290 (Feb 21 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.3250 (session high)

The current price: $1.3227

Support 1 : $1.3185 (Feb 21 low, MA (233) H1)

Support 2 : $1.3115 (Feb 17 low)

Support 3 : $1.3040 (Feb 15 low)

Change % Change Last

Oil $105.88 +0.04 +0.04%

Gold $1,760.80 +2.30 +0.13%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 9,463.02 -22.07 -0.23%

Hang Seng 21,478.72 +53.93 +0.25%

S&P/ASX 200 4,291.2 +35.10 +0.82%

Shanghai Composite 2,381.43 +17.83 +0.75%

FTSE 100 5,928.2 -17.05 -0.29%

CAC 40 3,465.24 -7.30 -0.21%

DAX 6,908.18 -40.07 -0.58%

Dow 12,965.69 +15.82 +0.12%

Nasdaq 2,948.57 -3.21 -0.11%

S&P 500 1,362.21 +0.98 +0.07%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3234 -0,07%

GBP/USD $1,5778 -0,45%

USD/CHF Chf0,9122 +0,05%

USD/JPY Y79,73 +0,14%

EUR/JPY Y105,53 +0,09%

GBP/JPY Y125,80 -0,30%

AUD/USD $1,0661 -0,87%

NZD/USD $0,8338 -0,71%

USD/CAD C$0,9967 +0,34%

00:30 Australia Wage Price Index, q/q IV quarter +0.7% +0.8%

00:30 Australia Wage Price Index, y/y IV quarter +3.6% +3.4%

02:30 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) February 48.8

08:00 France Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) February 48.5 48.7

08:00 France Services PMI (preliminary) February 52.3 51.9

08:30 Germany Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) February 51.0 51.1

08:30 Germany Services PMI (preliminary) February 53.7 53.6

09:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) February 48.8 49.3

09:00 Eurozone Services PMI (preliminary) February 50.4 50.7

09:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes 0

10:00 Eurozone Industrial New Orders s.a., m/m December -1.3% +0.6%

10:00 Eurozone Industrial New Orders, y/y December -2.7% -2.8%

14:00 Belgium Business Climate February -9.5 -7.9

15:00 U.S. Existing Home Sales January 4.61 4.67

The euro rose against most of its major counterparts after Greece won a second international bailout and the Greek finance minister said a formal offer for a debt swap will be made by the end of this week. Euro-area finance ministers awarded 130 billion euros ($173 billion) in aid to Greece and reached an accord for greater debt relief from investor representatives in an exchange offer to tide the nation past a bond redemption next month. The euro strengthened after news Greece’s government will introduce legislation to Parliament today that will allow it to enforce losses on bondholders in a writedown of Greek debt, part of a second financing package for the country known as private- sector involvement, or PSI, a government official said.

The yen fell for a fourth day versus the dollar, the longest losing streak in more than two months, as investors sold the Japanese currency to buy higher-yielding assets.

European stocks fell from a six- month high amid speculation a Greek bailout deal won’t be sufficient to solve the nation’s debt crisis.

European finance ministers approved a 130 billion-euro ($173 billion) bailout package for Greece early today by tapping into European Central Bank profits and convincing investors to provide more debt relief to the Mediterranean country. The deal includes a 53.5 percent writedown for investors in the nation’s debt, according to Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker, who chaired the talks. Finance ministers haggled into the night in Brussels over the terms of new loans and a possible contribution by central banks.

The odds that Greece will remain encumbered by debt were illustrated by an analysis by European and International Monetary Fund officials that highlighted what could go wrong with a country unable to grow out of its fiscal woes by devaluing its currency. In a worst-case scenario Greece’s debt might balloon to 160 percent of gross domestic product in 2020, it concluded.

Unless 90 percent of investors sign up to the bond swap, Greece may need to use force to secure the debt relief, entering legal difficulties. Finland and Germany are among the nations whose lawmakers must back the new loans and the International Monetary Fund must also decide how much it is willing to contribute to the package.

National benchmark indexes dropped in all of the western European markets, led by Greece’s ASE, which sank 3.5 percent. France’s CAC 40 fell 0.2 percent and Germany’s DAX slid 0.6 percent. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index declined 0.3 percent.

National Bank of Greece led declines in financial shares, falling 9.5 percent to 2.68 euros, after three days of gains. Intesa Sanpaolo SpA dropped 2.4 percent to 1.53 euros in Milan. Deutsche Bank AG, Germany’s largest lender, fell 2.1 percent to 33.85 euros. Julius Baer Group Ltd. declined 2.5 percent to 36.66 Swiss francs.

TNT Express NV fell 2.9 percent to 9.89 euros after the express-delivery service in takeover talks with United Parcel Service Inc. reported a fourth-quarter loss as reorganization costs and losses in emerging markets mounted. Post NL, which owns almost 30 percent of TNT according to data compiled by Bloomberg, dropped 4.3 percent to 4.75 euros.

Tullow Oil Plc dropped 3.6 percent to 1,543 pence, the largest decline in a month, after announcing results for an exploration well in Sierra Leone.

U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index above the highest close since 2008, as earnings from Home Depot Inc. to Macy’s Inc. tempered concern that Greece’s debt crisis will persist even after a bailout.

Earlier today, stocks swung between gains and losses as European finance ministers approved 130 billion euros ($173 billion) in aid for Greece by tapping into European Central Bank profits and coaxing investors into providing more debt relief to shield the region from a default. Greece’s debt may still balloon to 160 percent of gross domestic product in a worst-case scenario, analysis by the International Monetary Fund and European officials indicated.

Dow 12,992.56 +42.69 +0.33%, Nasdaq 2,957.32 +5.54 +0.19%, S&P 500 1,366.38 +5.15 +0.38%

Alcoa (АА) increased 3.1 percent to $10.47. Newmont Mining increased 3.2 percent to $61.36

Home Depot (HD) gained 1.3 percent to $47.30. The company attracted customers who spent more as U.S. unemployment sank to a three-year low in January and builders began work on more houses. Warmer weather helped sales at stores open at least a year advance 5.7 percent, the biggest gain since a 7.7 percent increase in the first quarter of 2004. That topped the average estimate for a 3 percent gain by five analysts.

Macy’s added 4.4 percent to $37.84. Its profitability shrank less than analysts projected as it was able to sell women’s handbags and accessories with its planned promotions rather than by slashing prices during the holiday season. Planned promotions can be profitable while last-minute efforts to clear excess inventories erode margins.

Wal-Mart lost 3.9 percent to $60.02. Chief Executive Officer Mike Duke is working to contain Wal-Mart’s costs and last quarter started pulling the company’s greeters from store lobbies to help with customer-service tasks. The retailer is seeking to keep prices low as its low-income shoppers suffer from persistent unemployment.

Oil rose to the highest level in more than nine months after euro-area finance ministers agreed on a second bailout for Greece, reducing concern that the debt crisis may slow the economy and oil consumption.

Prices gained as much as 2.1 percent after the ministers awarded 130 billion euros ($173 billion) in aid, wrung concessions from Greece’s private investors and engineered a European Central Bank profits transfer. Iran stopped selling oil to France and Britain yesterday to preempt a European Union ban on imports of its crude, according to an official news website.

Oil for March delivery gained to $105.44, the highest intraday price since May 5. Prices have risen 5.8 percent this year. The March contract expires at the close of floor trading today.

Brent oil for April settlement rose 38 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $120.43 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London.

The price of gold rising against the backdrop of the Eurogroup decision to grant Greece a second package of financial assistance amounting to 130 billion euros. Eurogroup on Monday night approved a 130-billion-recommended funding for Greece and the Greekprivate holders of debt of 206 billion euros to write off 53.5% from the nominal value. The intention is to reduce the country's debt to 120.5% of GDP by 2020. In return, Greece agreed to a multiyear program of austerity and structural reform.

The cost of the February gold futures on the COMEX today rose to 1756.6 dollars per ounce.